The Volatile Road Ahead for Tesla

Tesla, often likened to a high-speed electric car racing down the stock market highway, has had a series of abrupt turns and bumps in its financial journey. While Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest projects a massive 990% upside for Tesla stock, the reality of the company’s actual financial performance paints a contrasting picture.

Tesla’s Uphill Battle: The Challenge of Declining Sales

Despite Tesla’s record-breaking delivery numbers in 2023, the electric vehicle giant faces an uphill battle with decelerating sales growth. With Musk’s optimistic vision of upping EV production by 50% annually dwindling, Tesla’s deliveries saw a 6.5% decrease in the first half of 2024. The company’s gross profit margin plummeted to a meager 14.6%, a far cry from its former glory above 30%.

The global electric vehicle market is experiencing a downturn, evident in Europe’s 44% drop in EV sales. This slump in demand, coupled with Tesla’s struggle to match competitors on pricing, threatens its market position once more affordable EV models hit the scene.

Tesla’s FSD Lifeline: The Crux of Ark’s Bold Prediction

Ark Invest places its bets on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, heralding it as the cornerstone of the company’s potential resurrection. Yet, with FSD yet to gain approval for widespread use on U.S. roads, Tesla’s revenue projections for 2029 appear overly optimistic. Musk’s vision of a profitable robotaxi fleet and potential FSD licensing deals with other automakers carry significant uncertainties.

The Reality Check: Challenges Abound for Tesla’s Future

Ark’s lofty revenue forecasts, bullish on the back of Tesla’s FSD capabilities, could prove too ambitious given the current market realities. Tesla’s decreasing gross profit margin and declining EPS signal a bumpy road ahead, challenging the feasibility of meeting Ark’s grand projections. Musk himself expressed skepticism, labeling Ark’s targets as “extremely challenging” on social media.