Disappointing Signet Jewelers Offers A Diamond In The Rough – Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG)

While the holiday season tends to brighten spirits, love was certainly not in the air for Signet Jewelers Ltd SIG. Early last month, the diamond jewelry retailer posted disappointing results for its fiscal third quarter. Nevertheless, investors historically have bought extreme dips in SIG stock, opening the real possibility of a near-term bullish options strategy.

On paper, Signet posted adjusted earnings per share of 24 cents, missing Wall Street’s consensus view of 33 cents. On the top line, the company rang up sales of $1.35 billion, which unfortunately represented a 3.1% year-over-year decline. As well, this figure missed analysts’ revenue target of $1.37 billion.

During the conference call, Signet CFO Joan Hilson remarked that the competitive environment dragged down the Q3 print. What also sent investors rushing for the exits was management guiding current-quarter sales to a range between $2.38 billion and $2.46 billion. Previously, the consensus stood at $2.45 billion.

Still, the market tends to move on anticipated events. Given that the poor print is now in the rearview mirror, traders may consider looking at SIG stock from a fresh perspective.

Fundamental and Technical Underpinnings Point Northward for SIG Stock

To be sure, the dynamic political and economic ecosystem presents significant concerns for investors. Nevertheless, key datapoints suggest that consumer sentiment is generally improving, which may have positive implications for Signet’s core business. After all, academic research indicates an inverse correlation between rising unemployment and odds of marriage.

Recently, the stronger-than-expected December Purchasing Managers’ Index highlighted resilience in the U.S. services sector. Further, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for November, revealing that the namesake metric rose by 259,000 to 8.1 million. This figure exceeded market expectations of 7.7 million.

It should be noted that vacancies increased for white-collar categories, such as professional and business services and finance and insurance. Put another way, the vacancies were tied to sectors that younger workers prefer.

Beyond the fundamentals, investors may also take confidence in the technical framework of SIG stock. For the past 20 years, SIG commands an upward bias when viewed from a month-over-month performance basis. Specifically, out of 252 months, 136 posted a positive return on a sequential basis, thus yielding bullish probabilities of nearly 54%.

See also  Exploring Microsoft (MSFT) Before Q4 Earnings The Tale of Microsoft Ahead of Q4 Earnings

As the curtains rise for Microsoft (MSFT) ahead of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings report on Jul 30, investors are on the edge of their seats as they await the unveiling of financial numbers that are expected to reveal a growth trajectory. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues hint at an upward trend, with projections at $64.13 billion, showcasing a 14.2% rise from the previous year. Similarly, earnings per share estimates hold firm at $2.90, indicating a potential 7.8% climb year-over-year.

The Symphony of Results

In the previous quarter, Microsoft orchestrated an earnings surprise, outperforming market expectations by 5.91%. This feat wasn't an outlier, as the company has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.38%.

The Art of Projections

While analysts crunch numbers ahead of Microsoft's earnings day, the forecast isn't all sunshine and rainbows. The crystal ball for Microsoft's earnings performance remains hazy, as our analytics fail to definitively predict an earnings beat this time around. With an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of #3, the likelihood of an earnings surprise seems uncertain.

Anticipation and Speculation

Casting a keen eye on the upcoming results, Microsoft's growth narrative is believed to be strongly influenced by its Intelligent Cloud and Productivity and Business Processes wings. Azure and Office 365, the crown jewels in Microsoft's cloud empire, are expected to prominently drive revenue growth. Teams, the enterprise communication platform, has emerged as a pivotal player, expanding its reach and features to compete fiercely in the market.

Market Dynamics and Windows of Opportunity

The stage is set for the More Personal Computing segment, with Windows revenues anticipated to benefit from surges in Windows Commercial products and cloud services, fueled by a notable uptick in personal computer demand. The traditional PC market, following a historical trend of decline, saw a resurgence in the second quarter of 2024, underlining a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics.

The Showdown: Price and Valuation

When it comes to the stock performance arena, MSFT has showcased a return of 17.8% year-to-date, slightly trailing the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector. Competitors like HPE and AAPL have put up a strong show, while others like LNVGY have faced headwinds.

The Visual Symphony of Progress

Highlighting the year-to-date performance, a visual representation of Microsoft's journey provides insights into the stock's movements amidst sectoral dynamics and market trends.

Insights into Microsoft's Financial Landscape

Insights into Microsoft's Financial Landscape

Intriguingly, the aforementioned upward bias improves whenever SIG stock encounters severe monthly volatility. For example, last month, SIG suffered a drop of just under 20%. Since January 2004, there have been 22 instances when Signet stock incurred a one-month decline of 15% or worse. Out of this tally, 14 subsequent months saw a positive return or 63.64% of the time. Moreover, the average positive return landed at 18%.

Of course, history isn’t guaranteed to repeat. But the combination of supportive fundamentals and the technical dip-buying tendency bodes favorably for SIG stock.

Also Read: Are Regional Banks The Next Big Opportunity? Why Wall Street Analysts Expect Multiyear Rally

A High-Risk, High-Reward Call Spread Beckons

Recognizing that the market tends to get greedy when extreme fear strikes SIG stock, daring speculators may consider an options strategy called the bull call spread. This multi-leg transaction involves buying a call option and simultaneously selling a call at a higher strike price for the same expiration date. Here, traders can discount their long position by using the credit from the short call to partially offset the debit paid for the long call.

Assuming prior statistical trends play out, by the end of this month, SIG stock could be up 18% against December’s close or around $95.24. To provide some margin for error, aggressive traders may consider the 85/90 bull call spread (buy the $85 call, sell the $90 call) for the options chain expiring Feb. 21, 2025.

The above transaction provides a month-and-a-half for the bullish thesis to pan out, enabling traders the potential choice of exiting the position early. Also, SIG would only need to hit $90 (an 11.5% increase from December’s final session) to receive the maximum reward.

To be upfront, the time-of-writing max payout of almost 355% indicates that market makers believe SIG stock hitting $90 by expiration to be a low-probability event. However, the counterargument is that the combination of improving fundamentals and a technical tendency of extreme-value hunting makes for a surprisingly tempting transaction.

Read Next:

Photo by JHVEPhoto via Shutterstock.

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.