Introduction
Throughout the last two years, the stock market has experienced above-average total returns — with the Nasdaq-100 delivering investors a 54.8% return in 2023 and a 25.5% return in 2024. Compare this to the 11.8% average annual return the Nasdaq-100 has delivered since its inception in 1985.
As we enter 2025, not only have we experienced the best back-to-back years in the stock market since 1997 & 1998 — we’re objectively over-valued, historically speaking. At time of writing, the P/E ratio of the Nasdaq-100 sits at 31.3X — materially higher than the 10-year median of 25.3X. With that being said, I’d argue valuations are not what end secular bull markets. During secular bull markets, valuations can always go higher — just like during secular bear markets valuations can always go lower as fear and greed move markets from one side to the other much like a pendulum.
Under the Trump Administration, I’d argue the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. When you pair these rate cuts with a healthy economy you get the below chart — history tells us we could experience double-digit gains.
With that being said, I’m a firm believer that we’re not going to avoid market volatility in 2025 to the degree we did throughout both 2023 and 2024. During both of those years the largest decline the index experienced was -10%, one during July 2023 and another during August 2024. Compare those -10% declines to the average -12-15% annual decline we’ve historically experienced during bull markets, according to JPMorgan Chase.
Pair this expected heightened volatility with a historically volatile Trump Administration and you have yourself a recipe for some unpredictable returns in the Nasdaq-100 throughout 2025.
Introducing the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) — how I’m preparing for volatility in 2025 without leaving too much potential upside on the table in case I’m wrong.
What is QQQI?
The NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) is a covered call ETF that seeks to distribute high monthly income to their investors. They generate this high monthly income by investing into all of the underlying constituents of the Nasdaq-100 and implementing a data-driven call option strategy.
A few things set this fund apart from their peers like JEPQ and QYLD.
Unlike JEPQ, the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) holds all 100 constituents of the Nasdaq-100 index. There’s no “cherry picking” of names their fund managers think might be under-valued. Instead, QQQI investors know exactly what they’re signing up for.
Additionally, QQQI’s data-driven call option strategy utilizes Nasdaq-100 Index Options which is important for two reasons:
- Index options are classified as Section 1256 contracts by the IRS. This means no matter the holding period, all income generated from these contracts are taxed at 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains.
- Additionally, the fund portfolio managers aim to harvest losses within the portfolio to either offset gains in the option contracts or equity positions – which can allow fund distributions to be classified as a “Return of Capital.”
- Return of Capital distributions are not taxable in the year they’re received, instead investors would pay long-term capital gains on their distributions if / when they ever decide to sell their shares. This is especially important for investors looking to lower their annual tax burden as you’re essentially converting short-term income distribution payments into long-term capital gains treatment in the event of a future sale of the ETF.
Compare all of this to JEPQ’s equity-linked notes (ELNs) — a terrible income-generation strategy that forces investors to pay ordinary income tax on their distributions.
Unlike QYLD, the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) doesn’t sell call options against the entire value of the fund’s portfolio — but instead against only 75-90%. This means the other 10-25% of the portfolio can move freely up and down with the markets and is not “capped” by the strike price of the call option. As a result, gains are not limited to only the premiums received from the sold calls — which is the unfortunate reality for QYLD investors.
The result is the price of QQQI moves much more freely alongside QQQ when compared to QYLD.
For example, during the weeks throughout April 22 and July 18, 2024 shares of QQQ appreciated by +18.5%. During the same period of time, shares of QYLD appreciated only 4.4%, whereas shares of QQQI appreciated +9.8%. That +5.4% outperformance from QQQI was catalyzed by their fund managers strategically writing call options against only a portion of their fund’s notional value instead of the entirety of its value like QYLD.
Not to mention, that +9.8% appreciation in share price doesn’t include the $2.44 per share of income paid to QQQI investors during that three month stretch (~5.0% yield).
How Has QQQI Performed During This Bull Market?
QQQI was introduced to investors on January 30th, 2024. Shares of the fund began trading at $50 per share. Now that we officially have an entire year of performance to review, let’s see how QQQI did.
The 1-year total return of QQQI was 22.7%.
Throughout those 12-months, QQQI paid their investors $7.33 per share in total distributions. Assuming you purchase one share of QQQI for $50 on January 30th, 2024 — that’s a 14.7% annual distribution yield.
Throughout the last 12-months, the share price of QQQI appreciated by +8.3% — when combined with their annual distribution yield brings us to having captured 95.8% of the Nasdaq-100’s total return during the same period of time.
I’d argue QQQI has performed quite well during this bull market, capturing nearly 96% of their benchmark index’s total returns. Remember, the objective of this fund is not to out-perform its underlying benchmark index, but instead generate high tax-efficient monthly income for their investors.
And at a 14.7% annual distribution yield, I’d argue they accomplished that objective during their first year of trading.
How Will QQQI Perform During Volatility?
Now let’s answer the million dollar question — how will QQQI and other covered call ETFs perform during times of volatility?
Well, let’s first define what is going to cause the volatility.
For JEPQ, their fund managers have the autonomy to buy and sell specific names inside of their ETF to potentially offset market volatility. With that being said, JEPQ began trading on the open markets May 4, 2022 at $50.10 per share. On October 13, 2022 shares of JEPQ fell as low as $39.61 — a dramatic -20.8% decline in share price. With that being said, throughout that period of time they paid their investors $2.06 per share in cumulative distributions — a 4.1% yield against their open price of $50.10 in May.
From May 4, 2022 to October 13, 2022 JEPQ investors were looking at a -20.8% decline in price per share, which was more than QQQ’s -20.3% decline in price per share during the same period of time.
Historically speaking, JEPQ’s proprietary stock picking strategy does not offset price volatility during bear markets. The only way JEPQ was able to offset volatility was by generating monthly income for their investors.
Considering QYLD’s fund managers do not implement a proprietary stock picking strategy and instead just hold the constituents of the underlying index, theoretically speaking the only way QYLD could outperform QQQ during a bear market is by paying their investors a monthly yield as the two funds’ holdings are exactly the same.
Assuming this is true, then QQQI theoretically should also experience the same price decline as QQQ during a bear market — with the only outperformance coming from their monthly income. And considering QQQI pays their investors a 14.7% annual distribution yield (link) compared to QYLD’s 12.7% (link), that’s a 2% difference in the positive direction for QQQI.
Now when you pair that 2% theoretical difference with the outperformance QQQI has already demonstrated during rising markets (5.4% throughout April-July 2024), QQQI has the opportunity to 1) materially outperform its competitors while 2) offsetting a potential decline in price with its tax-efficient high monthly income if we experience volatility in 2025.
Summary
I cannot predict what the Nasdaq-100 will do in 2025. There is clear evidence of the index being historically overvalued, but I’m also a firm believer in the ideology that valuations can always be driven higher by greed. Considering the lack of volatility the index experienced in 2023 and 2024, I have reason to believe we’ll experience multiple double-digit pullbacks in the Nasdaq-100 throughout the year.
Assuming that is true, I believe holding shares of QQQI in my portfolio will be the best way to play this looming volatility as the income generated by the shares will offset any price declines experienced by the Nasdaq-100 while their data-driven covered call strategy on only a portion of the fund’s notional value will allow for price appreciation in rising markets as well.
Offsetting share price decline with tax-efficient monthly income while participating in rising markets is a recipe for success in 2025.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTCI, SPYI, QQQI, and IWMI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor
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