Insider buying is always good to see. It shows confidence among executives and board members, and, when the activity is rising, accelerating, and setting records, as it is with , it can signal a significant change in market dynamics. The data reveals insiders have been buying this stock since the start of the year.
Activity began to pick up in May, accelerated in June, and hit record levels in August. While purchases have been made by numerous insiders, including directors and the CAO, the bulk of the buying was by one man, Director Duncan Hawksby. His purchases topped $1.6 million and reflect significant confidence in the value and long-term outlook.
And it’s not just the insiders buying this consumer staples stock. Analysts are also urging their clients to buy. The analyst activity is robust, revealing increasing coverage and firming sentiment as the market bottomed.
The nine analysts tracked by InsiderTrades rate this stock as a Hold, but there is a bullish bias, with approximately 35% of the ratings a Buy and 0% a Sell. The recent uptick in coverage included many of the Buy ratings, and the price target is robust.
While the consensus price target is down compared to last year, the decline is marginal, and sentiment has held relatively steady in recent months, forecasting a 28% upside as of late August.
The institutional trends are bullish, but there is a caveat. While buying has been elevated and accelerating sequentially in 2025, sellers are pressuring the market in Q3. The selling began to outpace buying in Q2 and then ramped to record levels in the first half of Q3.
With this in play, the market can put in a bottom but struggle to complete its reversal. That may not happen until the institutional trend reverts to them buying on balance, but they are not an insurmountable force, owning less than 30% of the total market.
Tariff Headwinds Impact Reynolds Consumer Products Margin Outlook
Reynolds Consumer Products has considerable tariff exposure due to its reliance on global supply chains and its core product, which is made from aluminum. The company has reported as much as a $200 million annualized impact in 2025, but has so far been able to sustain strong margins.
Not only does the brand have pricing power, but the company’s domestic footprint, including 27 manufacturing facilities, allows it opportunities to shift supply chains and manage costs.
The analysts forecast Reynold’s revenue and earnings per share to decline by approximately 1% and 5% respectively, for Q3 and the year. The critical takeaways are that the bar is set low due to forecast reductions, outperformance is likely, and the capital return is safe.
The capital return is significant, with the dividend yielding about 4% annually in late August and the share count steady.
Reynolds’ balance sheet is healthy, raising no red flags for investors. At the end of Q2, the highlights include reduced cash offset by increased inventory, steady assets and equity.
The leverage is also very low, with long-term debt of less than one times equity and total liabilities of only 1.3x the equity.
The Technical Outlook: Reynolds’ Market Is at Bottom and Poised for a Reversal
Reynolds Consumer Products’ price action reflects a bottom. The rebound, which began in mid-June, aligns with improving analyst sentiment and insider buying and has the market set up for a reversal. The late August action put the price above the critical moving averages, setting it up to break above a resistance target and hit a multi-month high.
The resistance target is near $24.50; the risk is that it will cap gains for the remainder of calendar Q3. The stock could pull back to test for support and will likely find it in the mid to low-$22 range.