Key Points
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AWS is a mission-critical player in the global AI infrastructure buildout, backed by massive multiyear AI deals and $200 billion-plus backlog.
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Broadcom is seeing a dramatic increase in demand for its custom silicon and networking components from hyperscalers and AI labs.
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The list of $3 trillion-plus market capitalization companies is short for a reason. Only companies with exceptional global scale, cutting-edge technologies, durable competitive moats, and multiyear catalysts are capable of reaching this impressive milestone. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet have demonstrated these characteristics time and again, and have established themselves as members of this elite club.
However, two other giants riding the megatrends of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, and playing crucial roles in transforming the global economy, have yet to do so: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO).
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Although no forecast can be guaranteed, given their stellar financials and long-term demand tailwinds, I believe both of their market caps could surpass $3 trillion in the next few years.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Amazon
Amazon has become a crucial player in the global AI infrastructure buildout, and AWS still held a market-leading 29% share of the worldwide cloud computing infrastructure space as of the end of the third quarter. Amazon doubled its data center capacity to 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months and says it aims to double it again by 2027.
AWS reached an annualized revenue run rate of $132 billion in Q3, and exited the period with a backlog of $200 billion. Its actual backlog, however, is much higher, as that figure excludes deals announced after Sept. 30.
One such deal that captured Wall Street’s attention is Amazon’s $38 billion multiyear partnership with OpenAI. OpenAI will have access to AWS’s computing capacity over the next seven years, backed by hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs. This deal adds high-margin revenue streams to AWS. It also further validates the role of the company’s custom silicon and services in training and deployment of OpenAI’s next-generation AI Models. Anthropic is also using an Amazon AI computing cluster comprising nearly 500,000 Trainium2 chips to train and deploy its Claude large language model. The company also plans to deploy more than 1 million Trainium2 chips by the end of 2025.
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak expects AWS to grow by 25% in 2026, as he estimates that every $15 billion added to its backlog translates into 1 percentage point of AWS growth.
Despite these powerful catalysts, Amazon trades at just 3.4 times sales, the lowest ratio among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Analysts expect the company’s revenues to soar from $714.4 billion in 2025 to $1.2 trillion in 2030. Even if we assume no valuation expansion (which is a highly conservative stance considering its current levels), Amazon could comfortably cross the $3 trillion milestone by 2030. In fact, it could reach a nearly $4.1 trillion market cap by the end of the decade.
With a current market capitalization of $2.36 trillion, this implies an appreciation of nearly 73% over the next five years, or an annualized return of 11.5%. Hence, retail investors can pick a stake in the stock to earn steady returns in the long run.
2. Broadcom
Broadcom’s custom accelerators (XPUs) and networking solutions are in high demand from hyperscalers and AI labs building cutting-edge large language models. That demand translated into another exceptional earnings performance in its fiscal 2025 third quarter. Revenues were up 22% year over year to $16 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 30% to $10.7 billion.
Broadcom expects each of its three major hyperscaler customers to deploy 1 million XPUs in AI clusters by 2027 as a part of their multigenerational AI XPU roadmaps. Based on these three clients, the company has estimated that the serviceable addressable market (SAM) for its XPUs and networking solutions will be in the range of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027. However, its addressable market is even higher now, considering its opportunities with new clients. In the third quarter, the company secured a $10 billion order for XPU-based AI racks from a fourth qualified customer (which it did not publicly name). This will begin to show up in the company’s fiscal 2026 numbers.
In addition to these clients, Broadcom has also partnered with OpenAI to build 10 gigawatts of next-generation AI clusters. Management now expects AI revenue growth to exceed 60% in fiscal 2026.
Networking has also emerged as a key growth engine, as fast and low-latency data movement with lower power consumption has become a mission-critical feature for AI clusters with 100,000-plus computing nodes. The company’s Tomahawk 5 and 6 Ethernet switches and its Jericho 4 fabric routers are used by customers to enable scale-up networking (communication between XPUs and GPUs within a rack), scale-out networking (communication between racks in data centers), and scale-across networking (communication across data centers located at different sites). Broadcom’s networking products are used extensively for training and deploying next-generation AI models.
Besides hardware, Broadcom’s infrastructure software business, which includes VMware Cloud 9.0, is also proving to be a high-margin, cash-generating opportunity.
Broadcom currently trades at 28.6 times sales, which may appear to be a rich premium at first glance. However, considering its multiyear tailwinds and its solid backlog of $110 billion at the close of its fiscal third quarter (which ended Aug. 3), that valuation seems justified.
Analysts expect Broadcom’s revenue to grow from $63.3 billion in its fiscal 2025 (which ended Oct. 31) to $189.3 billion in its fiscal 2030. Even if we assume the company’s price-to-sales ratio compresses by around 40% (a conservative estimate given its role in the global AI infrastructure buildout), the company could reach a market capitalization of over $3.2 trillion in that year. If the price-to-sales ratio compresses to its five-year average of 15.4 times, the market capitalization could be just over $2.9 trillion, very close to the $3 trillion mark.
Considering Broadcom’s current market capitalization of nearly $1.72 trillion, investors can expect a return of 68% to 86% in the next five years, or annualized returns of 11% to 13.2%. While these returns wouldn’t be mind-boggling, investors could consider opening a small position in this stock for the high probability of a modest market outperformance.
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Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.