The first-quarter reporting season for the Auto-Tires-Trucks space has kicked off, with a mixed start. So far, four S&P 500 players—Tesla, Genuine Parts, General Motors and PACCAR—have announced results. Tesla, General Motors and PACCAR managed to top earnings expectations, while Genuine Parts fell short.
According to the April 22 Earnings Trends report, the broader auto sector is still expected to deliver solid growth. First-quarter 2025 earnings are projected to rise 10.9% year over year, with revenues likely to increase 3.4%.
Many key auto players are scheduled to report their first-quarter 2026 results tomorrow. These include O’Reilly Automotive ORLY, Ford F, Lithia Motors LAD, Penske Automotive PAG and Carvana CVNA. Before we discuss how these companies are expected to fare this time, let’s take a look at the broader factors shaping the quarterly performance of the auto sector.
Factors at Play
The U.S. auto market lost some momentum in the first quarter of 2026, though the slowdown isn’t entirely surprising. A key factor has been tough comparisons with last year, when demand was temporarily boosted by buyers rushing purchases ahead of tariff hikes. That pull-forward effect has naturally weighed on current volumes.
Affordability continues to be a major constraint. Elevated vehicle prices combined with high interest rates have discouraged many potential buyers, leading to weaker retail demand. On top of that, severe winter conditions and higher fuel costs added to consumer caution. Data from GlobalData shows retail vehicle sales fell 16% last month, while fleet demand proved relatively resilient, slipping just over 2%.
Although the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) improved slightly from February levels, it still trailed last year’s pace. According to Cox Automotive, SAAR for the quarter came in at roughly 15.5 million units, down from about 16 million a year earlier.
In short, the industry entered the year at a more moderate pace. High costs, lingering supply constraints and a normalization from last year’s demand surge have created a more challenging operating environment for automakers in the first quarter.
What’s in Store for ORLY, F, LAD, PAG and CVNA?
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O’Reilly is set to report earnings after the closing bell. It is one of the leading automotive aftermarket parts providers. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ORLY this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +1.29% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
The consensus mark for ORLY’s comps growth is pegged at 5.14% versus 3.6% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. While sales are expected to increase both in DIY (Do-it-Yourself) and DIFM(Do-it-for-Me) businesses, tariff-driven input inflation and rising capital spending are likely to have limited profit levels.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORLY’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 69 cents per share (implying growth of 11% on a year-over-year basis) and $4.47 billion (suggesting a year-over-year rise of 8%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the first quarter has remained unchanged in the past 60 days. O’Reilly surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters for as many misses.
O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. price-eps-surprise | O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. Quote
Ford is set to report earnings after the closing bell. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for this legacy U.S. automaker this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of -26.11% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Ford is expected to have felt the heat of falling U.S. deliveries in the first quarter. Even hybrids, which had been a strong growth driver, saw sales fall nearly 20%. EV volumes also fell 70% year over year. However, Ford Pro Intelligence paid software subscriptions grew approximately 29% year over year in the first quarter, which will somewhat offset vehicle delivery declines.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and automotive revenues is pegged at 20 cents per share (implying growth of 43% on a year-over-year basis) and $39.3 billion (suggesting a year-over-year increase of 5%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the first quarter has moved south by a penny in the past seven days. Ford surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once.
Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Lithia is set to report earnings before the opening bell. It is one of the leading auto retailers. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for LAD this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.
While the consensus mark for LAD’s revenues from new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, aftersales and finance and insurance segments are expected to have improved year over year, gross margins from vehicle sales are expected to have declined amid high cost of sales and pricing pressure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LAD’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $7.06 per share (implying a decline of 8% on a year-over-year basis) and $9 billion (suggesting a year-over-year rise of 2%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the first quarter has moved south by 46 cents in the past 30 days. Lithia surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters for as many misses.
Lithia Motors, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Lithia Motors, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Lithia Motors, Inc. Quote
Penske is set to report earnings before the opening bell. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for this automotive retailer this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank #4 at present.
While Penske’s revenues from new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, services and parts, finance and insurance, and fleet and wholesale segments are expected to have improved year over year, gross margins from vehicle sales are expected to have declined, offsetting the revenue growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAG’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.91 per share (implying a decline of 14% on a year-over-year basis) and $8 billion (suggesting a year-over-year rise of 5%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the first quarter has moved south by 17 cents in the past 30 days. Penske surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters for as many misses.
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Quote
Carvana is set to report earnings after the closing bell. It is a leading used vehicle e-retailer in the United States. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Carvana this time, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +10.90% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Carvana holds only a 1.6% share of the highly fragmented U.S. automotive retail market. This suggests that there is ample room for the company to expand, especially as more consumers gravitate toward online car buying. An expected sequential increase in retail unit sales is likely to have bolstered Carvana’s performance in the first quarter, while a spike in reconditioning costs is likely to have somewhat hurt its margins.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVNA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.42 per share (implying a decline of 6% on a year-over-year basis) and $6 billion (suggesting a year-over-year rise of 46%), respectively. The EPS estimate for the first quarter has moved north by a penny in the past seven days. Carvana surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once.
Carvana Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Carvana Co. price-eps-surprise | Carvana Co. Quote
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Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Carvana Co. (CVNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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