The Mighty Surge of Nvidia Stock in February

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By Ronald Tech

Nvidia, known for its AI chips, continued its relentless upwards climb in February. The surge was fueled by the growing demand for AI infrastructure, coupled with Nvidia’s impressive earnings report that surpassed all expectations.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nvidia’s stock soared by 28.6% in February. The stock saw early gains in the month driven by the buzz surrounding AI chips, and after a slight dip, it skyrocketed following the earnings release on Feb. 21.

NVDA Chart

NVDA data by YCharts

Analysts Underestimating Nvidia

Throughout the first half of the month, Nvidia’s shares climbed as other AI companies like Meta Platforms and Arm Holdings posted strong earnings, indicating a continued robust interest and demand in AI technology. Additionally, Nvidia’s announcement of a new venture targeting custom AI chips for cloud computing companies strengthened its competitive edge.

Nvidia also received a series of price target increases from Wall Street analysts, reflecting a highly bullish sentiment on the stock.

A note from Wells Fargo on Nvidia’s peer, Super Micro Computer, briefly dampened the AI rally. However, Nvidia’s stock surged after its outstanding earnings report, with revenue shooting up by 265% to $22.1 billion, surpassing estimates of $20.4 billion. Notably, data center revenue soared by 409% to $18.4 billion, while adjusted earnings per share rose by 486% to $5.16, beating the consensus of $4.60.

The company’s guidance for the upcoming quarter was equally impressive, forecasting $24 billion in revenue, well above the $21.9 billion consensus, and indicating an expansion in margins.

An Nvidia H100 superchip.

Image source: Nvidia.

The Ascension Continues

In March, Nvidia didn’t slow down as another positive report in the sector, this time from Dell Technologies, spurred a further rise. The AI boom shows no signs of waning, with Nvidia firmly positioned at the forefront.

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The market reception of the recent earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) left much to be desired among investors. This reaction, particularly towards Alphabet's results, may serve as an ominous foreshadowing of what is to come this week as four other members of 'The Magnificent 7' gear up to report.

Alphabet vs. Tesla Performance

Despite Tesla missing consensus estimates and facing margin pressures, Alphabet managed to beat estimates with several positive outcomes, notably in search and cloud areas. However, the spotlight shifted to Alphabet's larger-than-anticipated capital expenditures, raising concerns about ongoing AI-focused capex and its eventual returns. The worries were accentuated by Alphabet's management highlighting the risk of underinvestment. In contrast, Tesla experienced a drop in Q2 earnings, while Alphabet marked a 28.6% increase year-over-year with a 15% rise in revenues.

Future Outlook for Mag 7

The impending reports from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are expected to reflect on capital expenditures, growth trends in cloud services, and market skepticism towards AI initiatives. Amazon faces scrutiny over decelerating cloud growth compared to its peers, while Apple's focus remains on evolving iPhone trends in the Chinese market.

Group Performance and Expectations

The 'Mag 7' stocks are projected to showcase a 26.8% surge in earnings and a 13.7% increase in revenues compared to the same period last year. This sector is a crucial driver of the broader Technology industry, which anticipates a 16.8% earnings uptick and 9.5% revenue growth for Q2.

Industry Sector Growth Analysis

The Technology sector, buoyed by an upswing in estimates for the Mag 7 stocks, has witnessed a positive trend in recent quarters. The upcoming earnings season, with a multitude of companies preparing to report results, including key players like McDonald’s, Proctor & Gamble, and Pfizer, is expected to provide further insights into sector performance.

Earnings Landscape Overview

With over 41% of S&P 500 members already having disclosed Q2 results, the overall earnings show a modest 0.6% increase year-over-year alongside a 4.9% rise in revenues. As the reporting cycle gains momentum, eyes are on the broader market to gauge earnings and revenue beats.

Insights Into Q2 Revenue Trends

Notably, the Q2 revenue beats percentage hit a historic low of 57.5% for the 207 index members, indicating a demanding quarter compared to the last two decades.

Earnings Big Picture Analysis

When considering the aggregate picture for Q2, S&P 500 earnings are predicted to grow by 6.9% year-over-year with a 5.2% increase in revenues. The promising revisions trend observed prior to the earnings season underscores a positive outlook for the quarter's financial performance.

Analysis of Index Level Aggregate Earnings GrowthThe Landscape of Aggregate Earnings Growth

Expect Nvidia to scale greater heights in the forthcoming months as cloud infrastructure companies scramble to enhance their AI capabilities.

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Published on: *Stock Advisor returns as of February 26, 2024