Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. (VST) operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. With a market cap of $51.2 billion, the company is also involved in wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities.
Shares of the leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company have considerably outperformed the broader market over the past year. VST has gained 225.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.7%. In 2025, VST stock is up 9.1%, surpassing the SPX’s 2.2% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, VST’s outperformance is also apparent compared to the iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 29.2% over the past year. Moreover, VST’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 6.6% returns over the same time frame.
Vistra’s stock rally is driven by the surge in energy demand from data centers. The company’s clean power generation portfolio and strategic investments make it a strong player in the utility space. With the increasing usage of AI and data centers, electricity demand is expected to rise. Additionally, hyperscalers like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) are turning to nuclear power for their energy needs, which bodes well for Vistra’s growing nuclear power capacity. Discussions with large companies for new gas plants to support data center projects further highlight Vistra’s potential in the AI demand boom.
On Nov. 7, VST shares closed up more than 7% after reporting its Q3 results. Its revenue stood at $6.3 billion, up 53.9% year over year. The company’s full-year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ended in December 2024, analysts expect VST’s EPS to grow 95% to $7 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is disappointing. It missed the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while beating the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 12 analysts covering VST stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 11 “Strong Buy” ratings, and one “Hold.”
This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with one analyst suggesting a “Moderate Buy.”
On Feb. 20, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst David Arcaro maintained a “Buy” rating on VST with a price target of $173, implying a potential upside of 15% from current levels.
The mean price target of $191.83 represents a 27.5% premium to VST’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $231 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 53.5%.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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