Forget the Headlines: Tesla (TSLA) Is Still a Hold Based on What the Data Shows

Key Points

• Tesla’s robotaxi rollout focus has shifted from fleet size to software and safety progress.

• A large-scale rollout is unlikely before late 2026, so investors will need to be patient.

• Recent incident data suggests Tesla’s robotaxi safety record is strong and improving.

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The headlines will tell you that Tesla‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA) robotaxi rollout is behind schedule, and they would be partially right. It simply hasn’t progressed along the lines indicated by CEO Elon Musk’s previous pronouncements on the matter, and the stock has been punished for it. Still, I think there’s plenty of data to suggest real progress in the rollout — just not in the way many investors may have expected.

Rethinking Tesla’s robotaxi rollout

Many Tesla investors have focused on growth in fleet size and the number of cities where robotaxi is active as key markers of the rollout. They have good reason to do so, not least because Musk’s previous comments during the rollout have encouraged them. Moreover, fleet size and cities are relatively easy to monitor, and information is readily available on social media.

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However, management has changed the narrative around the rollout. It’s become abundantly clear that Tesla is focused on growing robotaxi miles driven (not the same thing as fleet size) and validating and releasing the next version of its full self-driving (FSD) software, v15, before moving to a wide-scale rollout. The good news is Tesla is making progress on v15 and already has early versions running in the robotaxi fleet.

That said, with v15 not expected to be released until the end of the year or early 2027, investors should not expect any kind of large-scale rollout until at least next year.

Software and safety, not fleet size and cities

As such, investors need to focus more on v15 development rather than purely monitoring fleet size and operational cities. This is somewhat problematic, as they will have to rely on management’s updates on v15 rather than on easily observable data about the rollout. This feeling of flying blind while monitoring the rollout creates uncertainty and naturally increases the likelihood that investors will sell the stock.

However, I think that would be a mistake for two reasons. The first is the change in narrative over the stock, driven by management emphasizing v15 development rather than fleet size and expansion into new cities, has reset expectations such that any new developments on those matters could be taken positively by the market.

The second is that there is data on the rollout that we can monitor. What’s more, it’s actually very impressive.

Tesla’s robotaxi safety data

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requires manufacturers to report crashes involving automated driving systems (ADS), which includes Tesla’s robotaxi incidents. First, here’s a look at the reported incidents, by month, since the rollout began last year.

Data source: National Highway Traffic Safety Adminstration. Chart by the author.

However, the raw data tells only part of the story, as most incidents are arguably not Tesla’s fault. I previously discussed the NHTSA data through January. Most of the incidents were not Tesla’s fault; in two cases, the teleoperator was responsible.

Tesla robotaxi incidents in 2026

So now I’ll focus on the granular incident data for 2026, comprising 14 incidents. Eight of those were caused by the robotaxi being hit by another vehicle. Of the remaining six, two were minor incidents caused by the remote assistance operator. That leaves just four incidents to focus on.

Report ID	Incident Date	Precrash Speed	Narrative*
13781-13645	January	1 mph	The rear end made contact with a wooden pole while reversing out of a blocked alley.
13781-13646	January	2 mph	The right-rear tire made contact with a curb corner while reversing into an empty parking space.
13781-13644	January	4 mph	The ADS’s left side mirror made contact with the tow truck’s bed on a narrow street.
13781-15399	June	5 mph	The ADS made contact with a thin metal chain blocking the entrance to the parking lot.

Data source: NHTSA. *paraphrased by author for brevity.

Readers can decide for themselves whether this data is impressive. Frankly, I think it’s very positive and a demonstration of Tesla’s progress toward its safety goals.

What’s next for Tesla’s rollout?

All of this is not to downplay the fact that Tesla is still refining v15, and nobody wants to see even very low-speed impacts with thin metal chains or wooden poles. Moreover, the data don’t tell us anything about remote-assistance interventions.

Still, the data is excellent and encouraging for patient investors waiting for the robotaxi rollout to eventually scale.

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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.