Markets Reprice Risk as Warsh’s Fed Debut Takes Center Stage This Week

Key highlights:

• Asian stocks surged Monday as markets welcomed a preliminary US–Iran peace deal and took heart from a strong Wall Street finish led by SpaceX’s standout market debut, while Japanese shares hit record highs ahead of this week’s Bank of Japan meeting.
• Oil slipped to a three-month low on Monday after US President Donald Trump and Iran’s deputy foreign minister announced an initial deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US dollar slid to a 10-day low against major currencies on Monday after a preliminary U.S.–Iran peace deal sent oil tumbling and lifted demand for riskier assets.
• Gold climbed over 2% on Monday after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim peace deal, which pushed oil lower and eased worries about inflation and higher interest rates.
• This week’s spotlight is on major central bank meetings, the BOJ and RBA decide on rates on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve meets later in the week.

Asian stocks and bond yields leapt on Monday as oil prices plunged after a tentative U.S.–Iran peace deal boosted hopes of easing global inflation and easing pressure for higher interest rates.

In Europe, and futures climbed 1.7% while added 0.77%; U.S. futures also rallied, with up 2.11% and jumping 2.88% amid a broad risk-on surge.

It was a turbulent week for markets as AI sentiment swings, the IPO and Iran developments roiled investors. The and slid to key support levels before bouncing back to post modest gains, while the enjoyed a strong week and the small-cap surged to a new high. plunged and Treasury yields dropped sharply.

Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting at the helm, a high-profile event that often sparks significant market swings.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:

New Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead his first meeting this week, when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates steady at the Wednesday wrap; Warsh will hold a post-meeting press conference to outline his approach to tackling inflation.

Warsh was nominated in January amid hopes for as inflation cooled and hiring slowed, but the war with Iran reversed that: energy prices rose, inflation hit a three-year high, and hiring surprised to the upside. He says the Fed should avoid long-term guidance that boxes it in. Analysts caution that less Fed communication could prompt bigger market moves as investors read economic data to guess policy direction.

May retail sales due on Wednesday will show how consumers are coping with higher prices. Earnings from CarMax, La-Z-Boy and Kroger will round out the short week; markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth.

Economic Calendar: (Week of June 15 – 18)

Monday June 15

• Capacity Utilization; Empire State Manufacturing; Industrial Production; NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday June 16

• Building Permits; Export Prices; Housing Starts; Import Prices

Wednesday June 17

• Business Inventories; EIA Crude Oil Inventories; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); MBA Mortgage Applications; Pending Home Sales

Thursday June 18

• ; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; ; Net Long-Term TIC Flows; Philadelphia Fed Index

A more detailed calendar.

Key Earnings Calendar: (Week of June 15 -18)

Monday June 15

• Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL); Canopy Growth (CGC); Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY); PowerFleet (AIOT); RF Industries (RFIL)

Tuesday June 16 

• John Wiley & Sons (WLY); La-Z-Boy (LZB)

Wednesday June 17

• CarMax (KMX); Jabil (JBL); LiveOne (LVO); Safe Bulkers (SB); Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI); Trip.com Group (TCOM)

Thursday June 18

• Accenture (ACN); America’s Car-Mart (CRMT); Korn Ferry (KFY); Kroger (KR)

A more detailed calendar

Earnings season slows next week but still has highlights: Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (NASDAQ:) reports after Monday’s close. CarMax (NYSE:), John Wiley & Sons (NYSE:) and Jabil Circuit (NYSE:) (JBL), while Smith & Wesson (SWBI) and Safe Bulkers (SB) are each forecast to post triple-digit earnings gains.

Accenture (NYSE:) (ACN) is forecast to report year-over-year earnings growth on stronger revenue for the quarter ended May 2026. While consensus expectations outline the broad earnings picture, the stock’s near-term move will hinge on how actual results compare with those estimates.

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for June 01 -05, 2026 suggests “Shorter trading weeks often remain green — but sentiment for the week ahead looks mixed”
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.