The past couple of weeks have been quite turbulent in the capital markets. In late January, a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek sent investors into a panic as the company claimed to have built powerful artificial intelligence (AI) applications for much less than what businesses in the U.S. are spending. As a result, technology stocks have been spiraling downward.
One company that has been hit hard over the DeepSeek narrative is Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). With the company scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Feb. 26, investors are anxiously waiting to see just how much DeepSeek may affect Nvidia’s business.
Start Your Mornings Smarter! Wake up with Breakfast news in your inbox every market day. Sign Up For Free »
Below, I’m going to explain why investors may not need to wait until later this month to assess if Nvidia stock is a good buy heading into earnings.
Big tech just squashed the DeepSeek fears
The bear narrative surrounding Nvidia during the past two weeks is that if DeepSeek’s claims are true, businesses may scale back their AI infrastructure spending. If this were to happen, demand for Nvidia’s expensive data center graphics processing units (GPU) would likely slow — thereby calling into question what the company’s future prospects look like.
Thankfully, Nvidia’s “Magnificent Seven” cohorts have already reported earnings. And one common thread stitching each of these behemoths together is that spending on AI infrastructure is on the rise. Comments made by management from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon have signaled that capital expenditure (capex) budgets for this year could be in excess of $300 billion if they all spend at the high end of their provided ranges.
This is an important figure to understand, as each of these companies already uses Nvidia products. And while I’ll admit that these companies are also investing in their own custom chipware, it’s unlikely that they will migrate entirely away from Nvidia anytime soon. For this reason, I see the rising AI infrastructure spending as a positive sign for Nvidia — and one that underscores the company’s robust growth prospects.
Image source: Getty Images.
How does Nvidia stock typically perform after an earnings report?
The chart below shows Nvidia’s stock price movement during the past three years. I’ve annotated the company’s earnings reports as seen in the purple circles with the letter “E” in the middle.
One thing is abundantly clear from the trends illustrated above: Nvidia shares usually rise after an earnings report. While the days leading up to or shortly after anearnings callmay carry some more pronounced volatility, Nvidia’s resilience always seems to shine through in the end.
Should you buy Nvidia stock before Feb. 26?
If you’re going purely based on history, the trends seen in the stock chart above would suggest that Nvidia stock will be headed higher after it reports earnings on Feb. 26. But smart investors know all too well that past performance shouldn’t be used as your sole barometer.
As the curtains rise for Microsoft (MSFT) ahead of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings report on Jul 30, investors are on the edge of their seats as they await the unveiling of financial numbers that are expected to reveal a growth trajectory. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues hint at an upward trend, with projections at $64.13 billion, showcasing a 14.2% rise from the previous year. Similarly, earnings per share estimates hold firm at $2.90, indicating a potential 7.8% climb year-over-year.
The Symphony of ResultsIn the previous quarter, Microsoft orchestrated an earnings surprise, outperforming market expectations by 5.91%. This feat wasn't an outlier, as the company has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.38%.
The Art of ProjectionsWhile analysts crunch numbers ahead of Microsoft's earnings day, the forecast isn't all sunshine and rainbows. The crystal ball for Microsoft's earnings performance remains hazy, as our analytics fail to definitively predict an earnings beat this time around. With an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of #3, the likelihood of an earnings surprise seems uncertain.
Anticipation and SpeculationCasting a keen eye on the upcoming results, Microsoft's growth narrative is believed to be strongly influenced by its Intelligent Cloud and Productivity and Business Processes wings. Azure and Office 365, the crown jewels in Microsoft's cloud empire, are expected to prominently drive revenue growth. Teams, the enterprise communication platform, has emerged as a pivotal player, expanding its reach and features to compete fiercely in the market.
Market Dynamics and Windows of OpportunityThe stage is set for the More Personal Computing segment, with Windows revenues anticipated to benefit from surges in Windows Commercial products and cloud services, fueled by a notable uptick in personal computer demand. The traditional PC market, following a historical trend of decline, saw a resurgence in the second quarter of 2024, underlining a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics.
The Showdown: Price and ValuationWhen it comes to the stock performance arena, MSFT has showcased a return of 17.8% year-to-date, slightly trailing the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector. Competitors like HPE and AAPL have put up a strong show, while others like LNVGY have faced headwinds.
The Visual Symphony of ProgressHighlighting the year-to-date performance, a visual representation of Microsoft's journey provides insights into the stock's movements amidst sectoral dynamics and market trends.
Insights into Microsoft's Financial LandscapeTo me, the more important idea explored here is that Nvidia’s largest customers have all come out and said that they remain committed to their AI growth roadmaps. And a subtle pillar supporting these AI ambitions is significant spending on capex. In theory, this bodes very well for Nvidia’s future.
While exact timing isn’t something I really encourage, I think this is a unique situation in which it’s not worth waiting a few more weeks just to hear what Nvidia’s management has to say about DeepSeek. The breadcrumbs dropped by big tech should serve as a good proxy for what Nvidia investors can expect in terms of growth.
For this reason, I’d buy the dip in Nvidia now — before the company’s earnings report later this month. The current sell-off represents an unusual window during which Nvidia stock is trading at an abnormally low valuation, which I think is worth taking advantage of.
Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $818,587!*
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.
*Stock Advisor returns as of February 7, 2025
John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.