Viasat Shines Brighter: Q1 Success Amidst Challenging Waters Viasat Shines Brighter: Q1 Success Amidst Challenging Waters

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By Ronald Tech

Viasat Inc. VSAT reported relatively healthy first-quarter fiscal 2025 results,
with the top line surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company reported higher revenues year over year,
backed by solid demand trends in both segments. In addition, incremental revenues from Inmarsat contributed
significantly to the top-line growth. An improved operating performance further led to a narrower-than-expected
loss.

A Brighter Bottom Line

The company incurred a net loss of $32.9 million or a loss of 26 cents per share compared with a net loss of
$77 million or a loss of 83 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The improved performance was primarily
attributable to higher revenues. The bottom line was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 42
cents.

Excluding non-recurring items, Viasat reported a non-GAAP net income of $39 million or 30 cents per share
against a net loss of $0.4 million or break-even results in the year-earlier quarter.

Viasat Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Viasat Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Viasat Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Viasat Inc. Quote

Robust Revenue Growth

Revenues surged 44% to $1.13 billion, driven by solid defense orders, healthy services revenues, an incremental
contribution from Inmarsat and a robust order pipeline. The top line surpassed the consensus estimate by $45
million.

Product revenues were $305.9 million, up from $236.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Net sales from Service
improved to $820.7 million from $543.4 million a year ago.

During the quarter, Viasat restructured its operating segments to better reflect its existing businesses and
offer investors greater transparency about its future growth opportunities. Effective from the first quarter
of fiscal 2025, the company will have two distinct segments — Communication Services and Defense and Advanced
Technologies.

The Communication Services segment encompasses four key business lines — Aviation, Government Satcom, Maritime,
and Fixed and Other. The Defense and Advanced Technologies segment comprises Information Security and Cyber
Defense, Space and Mission Systems, Tactical Networking, and Advanced Technologies and Other.

Revenues from the Communication Services segment improved to $826.8 million from $560.3 million in the year-ago
quarter. The improvement is driven by strong growth in commercial and business aviation IFC services along with
solid contribution from Inmarsat. A decline in the U.S. fixed broadband portfolio partially affected the net
sales. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $307.7 million from $155.6 million, backed by Inmarsat
revenues.

Revenues from Defense and Advanced Technologies were $299.7 million, up from $219.5 million in the year-ago
quarter. Higher revenues from recurring licensing agreements and tactical networking products led to the
year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $96.3 million compared with $27.7 million a year ago.

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Operational Excellence

In the June quarter, the company reported an operating profit of $59.7 million against an operating loss of
$41.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $403.9 million, up from $183.3 million in the
year-ago quarter.

Financial Stability

During the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Viasat generated an operating cash flow of $151 million compared with
$104 million in the prior-year period. As of June 30, 2024, the company had $1.81 billion in cash and cash
equivalents, with a net debt of $5.6 billion. Capital expenditures declined 20% year over year to $301 million,
primarily due to lower satellite expenditures, customer premise equipment and general infrastructure costs.

Focused Outlook

For fiscal 2025, management expects total revenues to remain roughly flat or increase slightly year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations is projected to grow by mid-single digits. Revenues from
Communication Services are expected to be slightly down in fiscal 2025, as a decline in U.S. fixed broadband
revenue and non-broadband service components of maritime will more than offset strong growth in aviation services
and government satcom services.

Defense and Advanced Technologies revenues are expected to increase in low-single digits, driven by tactical
networking products, antenna systems solutions, recurring contributions from certain licensing agreements and
strong demand for AI applications.

Viasat currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Upcoming Earnings Releases

Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. CCOI is scheduled to release second-quarter 2024 earnings on Aug 8.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at a loss of $1.31 per share, suggesting a decline of 907.7%
from the year-ago reported figure.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM
is slated to release second-quarter 2024 earnings on Aug 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged
at $1.54 per share, indicating growth of 3.4% from the year-ago reported figure.

Akamai has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 4.8%. AKAM delivered an average earnings surprise of 5.4%
in the last four reported quarters.

Keysight Technologies, Inc. KEYS is due to release third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on Aug 20.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.35 per share, implying a decline of 38.4% from the
year-ago reported figure.

Keysight has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 5.5%. KEYS delivered an average earnings surprise of 4.4%
in the last four reported quarters.

The Rise of Palantir: A Potential Trillion-Dollar Player in the AI Market

The Dominance of AI Titans

The ascent of artificial intelligence (AI) as a driving force in the market is undeniable, with major players like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms leading the way. These tech giants, with market cap values in the trillion-dollar range, showcase the immense potential embedded in AI technology.

While the likes of Apple and Microsoft command market caps exceeding $3 trillion, the volatile but formidable Nvidia holds strong at $2.6 trillion. Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms follow closely behind, boasting market caps of $1.9 trillion, $1.7 trillion, and $1.2 trillion, respectively. The common thread binding these coveted market leaders is the boundless frontier presented by AI.

A Silent Force Emerges

With a current market cap of $60 billion, Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) may appear modest compared to its behemoth counterparts. However, beneath the surface, Palantir is strategically positioning itself to potentially join the esteemed trillion-dollar club. While many companies are still in the nascent stages of crafting an AI strategy, Palantir has silently honed its skills over two decades, primarily focusing on AI solutions for the U.S. government and global allies.

Transitioning its expertise to cater to enterprise-level entities, Palantir introduced the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) powered by generative AI, carving a niche for itself in the market. Embracing a hands-on approach, the company conducts boot camps where users collaboratively develop and implement AI solutions alongside Palantir engineers, yielding swift and palpable results.

Palantir recently disclosed a milestone achievement, with over 1,025 organizations undergoing boot camps, resulting in significant deals worth over a billion dollars. Notably, the company reported a 27% year-over-year revenue surge in the second quarter, driven by robust U.S. commercial revenue growth catalyzed by AIP.

The Road to Trillion-Dollar Status

Leveraging its rich AI legacy, Palantir enjoys a competitive edge in serving government and enterprise clients seeking cutting-edge AI solutions. The realm of generative AI has captivated global governments, unveiling a promising arena for sovereign AI development.

Wall Street projections envision Palantir generating $2.7 billion in 2024, translating to a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 22. Sustaining this growth trajectory, Palantir would need to scale its revenues to around $45 billion annually to justify a $1 trillion market cap. With a 27% year-over-year revenue increase in the latest quarter, Palantir could conceivably breach the trillion-dollar threshold by 2036 at the current pace.

However, the rapid adoption of generative AI signals an accelerated trajectory for Palantir. Noteworthy is the U.S. commercial revenue’s impressive 40% and 55% year-over-year growth in the first and second quarters, respectively. As customer count within this segment surged by 69% and 83% in these respective periods, Palantir’s ascent to the trillion-dollar echelon could materialize much sooner.

Estimates hint at the vast expanse of the generative AI market, projected to burgeon between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually, as per McKinsey & Company. Palantir’s sustained growth and industry primacy set the stage for a rapid ascent, potentially propelling the stock to a trillion-dollar valuation in the foreseeable future.

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