Warren Buffett’s American Express Investment Warren Buffett’s American Express Investment

Photo of author

By Ronald Tech

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investment manager and Chairman/CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, famously known as the Oracle of Omaha, has long been bullish on American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) stock. His faith in the company dates back to the first quarter of 2001, when Berkshire Hathaway first invested in the company.

Since that time, American Express stock has soared by approximately 350% from its value in mid-February 2001, consistently meeting and exceeding Wall Street’s estimates.

Berkshire Hathaway’s initial investment in American Express stock was made when the stock was trading at approximately $40. Fast forward to the present day, and the stock is trading at around $187, translating into an impressive growth of over 3.5 times the initial investment.

For investors who might be kicking themselves for missing out, consider this: if you had placed $1,000 into the stock at roughly the same time that Buffett began championing it, your investment would have ballooned to about $4,530 today – a mammoth 353% return. On an annualized basis, that’s a healthy 9.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

As per the latest 13F filing, American Express represents the third-largest holding in Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, commanding an impressive 7.12% stake. Effectively, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns over 20% of the company.

Over the past year, the stock has seen a meteoric rise of 20.5%. With such rapid gains, one might wonder if there is any upside remaining. Despite the steep climb, American Express seems to be in a robust position, especially with the Federal Reserve’s shift to lower rates this year. Moreover, the abatement of inflation is expected to stimulate credit card spending, which would be advantageous for Amex’s business. As a bank holding company, it benefits from diversified revenue streams, reduced borrowing costs, and access to Federal Reserve funding.

See also  Insights Into Magnificent 7 Earnings PerformanceMarket Disappointment and Precursors

The market reception of the recent earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) left much to be desired among investors. This reaction, particularly towards Alphabet's results, may serve as an ominous foreshadowing of what is to come this week as four other members of 'The Magnificent 7' gear up to report.

Alphabet vs. Tesla Performance

Despite Tesla missing consensus estimates and facing margin pressures, Alphabet managed to beat estimates with several positive outcomes, notably in search and cloud areas. However, the spotlight shifted to Alphabet's larger-than-anticipated capital expenditures, raising concerns about ongoing AI-focused capex and its eventual returns. The worries were accentuated by Alphabet's management highlighting the risk of underinvestment. In contrast, Tesla experienced a drop in Q2 earnings, while Alphabet marked a 28.6% increase year-over-year with a 15% rise in revenues.

Future Outlook for Mag 7

The impending reports from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are expected to reflect on capital expenditures, growth trends in cloud services, and market skepticism towards AI initiatives. Amazon faces scrutiny over decelerating cloud growth compared to its peers, while Apple's focus remains on evolving iPhone trends in the Chinese market.

Group Performance and Expectations

The 'Mag 7' stocks are projected to showcase a 26.8% surge in earnings and a 13.7% increase in revenues compared to the same period last year. This sector is a crucial driver of the broader Technology industry, which anticipates a 16.8% earnings uptick and 9.5% revenue growth for Q2.

Industry Sector Growth Analysis

The Technology sector, buoyed by an upswing in estimates for the Mag 7 stocks, has witnessed a positive trend in recent quarters. The upcoming earnings season, with a multitude of companies preparing to report results, including key players like McDonald’s, Proctor & Gamble, and Pfizer, is expected to provide further insights into sector performance.

Earnings Landscape Overview

With over 41% of S&P 500 members already having disclosed Q2 results, the overall earnings show a modest 0.6% increase year-over-year alongside a 4.9% rise in revenues. As the reporting cycle gains momentum, eyes are on the broader market to gauge earnings and revenue beats.

Insights Into Q2 Revenue Trends

Notably, the Q2 revenue beats percentage hit a historic low of 57.5% for the 207 index members, indicating a demanding quarter compared to the last two decades.

Earnings Big Picture Analysis

When considering the aggregate picture for Q2, S&P 500 earnings are predicted to grow by 6.9% year-over-year with a 5.2% increase in revenues. The promising revisions trend observed prior to the earnings season underscores a positive outlook for the quarter's financial performance.

Analysis of Index Level Aggregate Earnings GrowthThe Landscape of Aggregate Earnings Growth

Currently, financial sector investors view Amex as a Neutral-rated stock as per consensus estimates.

An analysis of the company’s prospects shows that several analysts have raised their price targets beyond the consensus estimates for Amex stock:

  • Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on Jan. 10 with a Buy rating and a price target of $235 on the stock.
  • JP Morgan’s coverage from Jan. 4 raised their price target from $167 to $205.

In light of this, it becomes apparent that American Express continues to exhibit potential for growth and remains an attractive investment prospect in the current market landscape.

Photo: Shutterstock


5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year

By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.