Something historic just happened at the world’s largest miner and most investors missed it.
reported first-half earnings Tuesday that beat Wall Street estimates, with underlying profit surging 22% to $6.2 billion. But the headline number isn’t the story. For the first time in the company’s 170-year history, copper generated more profit than iron ore. That’s not a cyclical blip. It’s a structural shift, and it has massive implications for anyone trying to position for the next decade of AI infrastructure spending.
The Numbers Behind the Flip
Here’s what BHP’s half-year results actually showed. Copper, including gold and silver byproducts, delivered $7.95 billion in operating earnings — 51% of the group’s total $15.46 billion in underlying EBITDA. Iron ore, long the undisputed king at BHP, came in second at $7.50 billion. That flip was driven by a 32% jump in realized copper prices alongside strong production from Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine in Chile.
Revenue rose 11% to $27.9 billion. The EBITDA margin held at a fat 58%. And the dividend? BHP declared $0.73 per share, a 46% increase from last year’s $0.50 — and well above the $0.63 that analysts had penciled in. Andy Forster, portfolio manager at Argo Investments and a BHP shareholder, didn’t mince words: “They smashed everyone’s expectations from a dividend perspective.”
CEO Mike Henry framed the result as validation of a multiyear strategy. “This is allowing us to maximise increased earnings from the recent run up in copper prices as well as gold,” he said. “With four compelling growth options across Chile, Argentina, Arizona and South Australia, we are well positioned to capture the forecast higher long-term copper prices.”
The stock responded accordingly. BHP shares jumped 7% on the ASX to an all-time high, while the NYSE-listed ADR opened near $74 — up from Friday’s close of $73.38.
Why Copper Is the New Oil
Let’s be clear about what’s driving this. Copper isn’t rallying because of some speculative frenzy. It’s rallying because the world literally can’t build AI data centers, electric vehicles, power grids, or renewable energy infrastructure without it.
A single AI data center requires 30 to 50 times more copper than a traditional server farm. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related electricity demand alone will add 500,000 metric tons of annual copper consumption by 2030. That’s on top of existing demand from EVs (each one uses 50-80 kg of copper versus 20 kg in a conventional car) and the global push to electrify everything from heating systems to industrial processes.
Meanwhile, supply growth is crawling. BHP lifted its FY26 production forecast to 1.9-2.0 million tons, and raised its Escondida 2027 outlook to 1.0-1.1 million tonnes, but the broader industry is struggling. Mine approvals are at multi-decade lows. Average ore grades keep declining. New projects take 10-15 years from discovery to first production.
The result? Copper futures are holding near $5.90 per pound — down from the $6.50 peak in late January on Lunar New Year thin liquidity, but still roughly 100% above where they traded just two years ago. Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank all project higher prices through 2026 and beyond.
How to Play the Copper Supercycle
The BHP earnings tell us something important: the copper trade isn’t just about the metal price. It’s about operating leverage, dividend growth, and margin expansion at well-positioned miners. Here’s where to look.
- BHP Group (BHP) is the obvious starting point. Trading near $74 on the NYSE, the stock just hit an all-time high and offers a dividend yield approaching 4% on an annualized basis after the 46% increase. The $4.3 billion silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) — the largest silver streaming agreement ever — unlocks additional portfolio value and signals management is serious about monetizing non-core assets. BHP is targeting $10 billion in total asset proceeds, which could supercharge future dividends. The risk? At $74, the stock has outrun most analyst targets (average around $60), so buyers are paying for execution.
- is the purest large-cap copper play in U.S. markets. Trading near $63, FCX just posted its own strong Q4 with revenue of $5.63 billion — well above the $5.29 billion consensus — and its Grasberg mine in Indonesia remains one of the world’s highest-grade copper-gold assets. Wall Street has it rated Strong Buy with an average target of $55, which at current prices looks stale. With copper at $5.90 and Freeport’s all-in costs well below $3.00 per pound, the margin picture is exceptional.
- sits at around $194 and is the lowest-cost major copper producer globally. With operations in Peru and Mexico, it has the best reserve-to-production ratio in the industry and an EBITDA margin of nearly 56%. The P/E at 43x looks expensive on the surface, but if copper moves toward $7.00 per pound — which multiple banks now forecast — earnings estimates will need to be revised sharply higher. This is a name you buy for the next five years, not the next five weeks.
- , trading near $59, is a pure-play copper story in the making. Roughly 80% of Teck’s projected 2027 EBITDA comes from copper, and the pending merger with Anglo American — approved by shareholders in December — would create a $50 billion copper-focused entity. UBS has a target of C$90 on the Toronto listing, and Citi upgraded to Buy on February 4. With a 25% increase in copper volumes projected by 2030, Teck offers the most compelling growth profile among established miners.
- For investors who want diversified exposure without single-stock risk, the is the cleanest option. Trading near $88, it has returned an astonishing 121% over the past year and holds major positions in FCX, Teck, and Antofagasta. It’s effectively a one-ticker bet on the copper supercycle thesis, with a 0.65% expense ratio and roughly $7.7 billion in assets.
The Bear Case (and Why It’s Manageable)
No trade is without risk, and copper miners carry real ones. China’s economy remains a wildcard — the Lunar New Year pause that knocked copper below $6.00 is a reminder that Asian demand drives a big chunk of the market. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association projects refined copper output rising just 5% in 2026, half the growth rate of 2025. If the Chinese property sector deteriorates further, copper demand from traditional construction could soften.
There’s also the valuation concern. Copper miners have materially outrun consensus analyst price targets. BHP at $74 sits above most 12-month forecasts. FCX at $63 is 15% above its average target. That doesn’t mean the stocks are overvalued — it means analysts need to update their models for $6+ copper — but it creates near-term vulnerability if copper dips or broader markets sell off.
And Goldman Sachs estimates the copper market actually ran a surplus of 600,000 tons in 2025, which complicates the pure scarcity narrative. The deficit thesis depends on demand growth exceeding supply growth over the medium term, which is the base case but not guaranteed.
My read? The structural demand from AI, EVs, and electrification isn’t going away. If anything, BHP’s results just proved that the companies positioned at the right end of this trend are printing cash. The tactical entry might not be today’s all-time high — but the secular trend is unmistakable.
What to Watch
Three catalysts could move the copper complex in the next two to three weeks. First, BHP’s silver streaming deal with Wheaton needs to close, and any details on the remaining $5.7 billion in targeted asset proceeds will signal how aggressively management is deploying capital. Second, Chinese markets reopen from Lunar New Year on February 23 — the pace of industrial restocking in late February and March will set the tone for copper demand into Q2. And third, NVIDIA’s earnings on February 25 will give us the latest read on AI capex spending, which is the single biggest driver of the copper-for-data-centers narrative.
The world’s largest miner just told us that copper is its future. When BHP shifts its center of gravity, the rest of the industry follows. Smart money is already positioning accordingly.