Results: beat earnings expectations with July-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion (roughly in line with consensus) and quarterly net income of $26.4 billion, up 59% year over year.
Data-center performance: Data-center revenue — the business driving the AI cycle — rose 56% to $41.1 billion but fell just short of the $41.3 billion analysts had expected.
Guidance and uncertainty: Management guided to $54 billion for the current quarter, a modest beat of Street estimates, but that outlook explicitly excludes any China chip revenue, leaving a material source of uncertainty for future growth.
Capital return: The company announced a $60 billion buyback, which should be accretive to EPS and signals confidence from management in capital allocation.
Takeaway: While results and the buyback are supportive for shareholders, the tepid guidance relative to the string of blockbuster quarters has investors watching closely for signs that demand for AI chips is plateauing and for clarity on China sales and near-term enterprise spending.
Key Highlights
- Market-research firm IDC estimates Nvidia controls roughly 90% of the data-center GPU market. Major cloud providers and key Nvidia customers — including Amazon’s AWS, Alphabet’s Google Cloud and Microsoft’s Azure — as well as rivals and , are all working to develop their own chips.
- Nvidia is barred from selling its top-tier chips in China but can still ship a lower-end H20 model. Fox Business’ Liz Claman posted on X that CEO Jensen Huang said he’s in talks with the Trump administration to secure approval to sell the superior Blackwell AI chip to China, offering to give the U.S. government a cut of those sales and expressing a desire for U.S. technology to become the global standard, comparable to the U.S. dollar.
- Jensen Huang said Wednesday that worries about a slowdown in AI-chip spending are misplaced and that the market will expand into a multi‑trillion‑dollar opportunity within five years.
Analysts Expectation
- UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $205 target on Nvidia (NVDA) despite mixed results and slightly softer guidance. The $4.41 trillion company has climbed more than 30% since the last report and posted 86% revenue growth over the past year, trading near its 52‑week high of $184.48 with an “EXCELLENT” InvestingPro health score—though it is above fair value. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri says clarifying a 15% licensing fee to ship H20 chips to China could add $2–5 billion in quarterly revenue.
- Oppenheimer kept NVIDIA (NVDA) at Outperform and lifted its target to $225 (from $200). The stock closed at $181.60, up 2.1% in the past month and 54.4% over the past year. Analysts are broadly bullish (58 buys, 6 holds, 1 sell), but InvestingPro values NVDA at $158.60 — about a 14.5% downside with medium uncertainty.
www.barchart.com 
www.barchart.com 
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Technical Analysis Perspective
- NVDA repeatedly trades in rectangle (range) patterns.
- It’s currently inside a large rectangle that began in late June ’25.
- After earnings, the stock was rejected at the pattern’s midline at 185.
- Odds favor a pullback to the pattern base near 155 in the coming months before resuming higher.
- A sustained break above 185 would invalidate the down view and put 215 in focus.
Weekly Candlestick Chart
NVDA Seasonality Chart
Since 2006, NVDA has experienced an average increase of 7.7% in August, with positive performance in 85% of those years, and an average increase of 0.3% in September, occurring 63% of years.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.